Meteorology & Mathematics

Research Proposals for 2002 - Group D

Meteorology, Mathematics and Marion Island

Marion Island is situated at 46°52'34" South 37°51'32" East in the Southern Indian Ocean. The island is 19 km long by 12 km wide, and is of volcanic origin. Due to its location in the Roaring Forties the island is under the influence of strong and persistent westerly winds. Sunshine is rare and the temperature falls below freezing point in winter. At 1230m the highest point on the island is permanently covered in snow and ice. Despite the harsh weather conditions the island has a unique and vast biodiversity. Recently scientists have started to realize that Global Climate Change may have a significant impact on the ecology of the island.

In this project students are invited to observe, model and predict the weather and climate of Marion Island. The project will consist of the following:

1. Students will have real-time access to weather observations on the island, mainly in the form of photographic images from a Web Cam that will be located on the island.
2. Weather forecasts from a sophisticated numerical weather prediction model will be available to compare against observations. Here students will learn how mathematics can be used to predict the future state of the atmosphere.
3. Climatological data of the island will be analysed to identify possible trends of climate change.

Participants

• Mr Francois Engelbrecht (Meteorology)
• Mr Gusti van Zyl (Mathematics)
• Mr Deryck Yelverton (Marion Island team leader)
• Mrs Elizma Yelverton (Meteorologist, Marion Island)